Obama's Women Problem
Thursday, July 31, 2008By Dick Morris
TEXT SIZE
If soccer moms determined the outcome of the 1996 presidential race and security moms tipped the balance in 2004, it is beginning to look as if older moms are the key to the 2008 contest. Obama has a problem among women over 40 and a big problem among women over 50. These groups, normally the staunchest of Democratic supporters, are showing a propensity to back McCain and a disinclination to support Obama.
According to the latest Fox News survey, Obama is winning among women under 40 by 13 points, but McCain is winning among women aged 41-45 by four points. Among women 50 and over, McCain is three points ahead. Obama's 48-35 lead among women under 40 is normal for a Democrat, but to trail among women in their 40s by 45-41 and by women over 50 by 38-35 is extraordinary.
The problem is that older women don't like Obama as much as younger women do. While 70 percent of women under 40 have a favorable opinion of the Democratic candidate, only 58 percent of women in their 40s feel the same way, and only 52 percent of those over 50 see him favorably.
For a Democrat to be losing among women over 40 is without precedent in the past 20 years.
In fact, the gap between male and female voting preference in this election is far lower than it normally is. Among people under 40, men back Obama by eight points and women support him by 13. Among those in their 40s, men back McCain by 11 points and women support him by four. And for those over 50, men vote for the Republican by a nine-point margin while women prefer him by three points.
Usually, the gender gap runs at least 10 points in each age group and, more usually, averages a 15-point differential. The lower gap in this race does not indicate any special popularity for McCain or negatives on Obama among men. Men are voting the way they usually do. It's women who are making the big difference and keeping this race tied.
Part of the problem may stem from Obama's defeat of Hillary Clinton during the primaries. Hillary drew her strongest support from older women who still remembered the sexism of their youth and their struggles to pierce the glass ceiling. For younger women, sexism has much less personal relevance and they were less drawn to her candidacy.
But a bigger problem may be a cultural alienation older white women feel toward Obama. The Rev. Jeremiah Wright may linger as a worry in their increasingly gray heads as they contemplate an Obama presidency. This fear of the unknown and the gap they seem to feel with Obama is so strong that it is overcoming their normal proclivity to back Democrats.
Of course, McCain is a uniquely attractive candidate to the Democratic and independent base. Long regarded as a maverick Republican, he attracts these swing voters and is ideally positioned to exploit the estrangement between older women and Barack Obama.
Would choosing Hillary as a running mate assuage the concerns of older white women? It might.
They could get enthusiastic, one would think, about seeing a woman sitting a few feet away from the president in the Oval Office (again!).
But Hillary would bring with her a different set of problems. Her candidacy would invite scrutiny of Bill's financial dealings, most recently exposed in The Wall Street Journal's coverage of the incredible corruption of his buddy the president of Kazakhstan.
The problem is Obama. And it can only be solved by Obama, not by his running mate. For his part, McCain should take dead aim at this demographic, perhaps by selecting a female running mate who would appeal to them.
The current favorite, Mitt Romney, does him no earthly good with these folks, and his Mormonism is likely to be a big turnoff. But McCain could choose Condi Rice or any number of other Republican women (like Kay Bailey Hutchison, the Texas senator) and attract these dissident women.
Morris, a former political adviser to Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.) and President Bill Clinton, is the author of “Outrage.” To get all of Dick Morris’s and Eileen McGann’s columns for free by email, go to Dickmorris.com.
Member Comments
-
marytkelly
-
SilverOffline
-
-
-
I am a woman in her early 50’s, moderate and white. I admire Obama and have every intention of voting for him in November. I’ve done a lot of research about him. I’ve read his books, listened to his speeches, and I have given McCain the same courtesy.
Why do you resent having Obama foisted on you by the press and polsters? I don’t know what news stations you watch—definitely not Fox News. There will be no Obama foisting on that channel. I’m sure you have a right to read and watch what you want and the idea of foisting implies that you have no choices.
As of today, as they have in the past, the pollsters have been calling a very close race so I have no idea which polls you’ve been following.
What I do know is that I and almost 70% of Americans have had enough of 8 years of an administration that has been ignoring the wishes of the American people foisting their unprecedented constitutional amendment killing policies on us.
Enough is enough. Give hope a chance.
-
-
-
SilverOffline
-
-
-
Well, if you watch mostly NBC, MSNBC, and Chris Matthews—I agree they are very pro-Obama. I personally love Chris Matthews and Keith Obermann. But I agree with them so they are easy to watch.
I check out politico.com, huffington post (very pro-Obama), snopes, factcheck.org (great bipartisan site that separates fact from fiction), and andrew sullivan’s site (he’s a conservative). An avid read of the New York Times and Washington Post (liberal newspapers but still have some great articles that go both ways—Washington Post recently had an article attacking Obama for being too presidential). I also am an avid fan of Maureen Dowd and she just never seems to like anyone.
I have a friend who thinks I’m too idealist. Obama is my last hold out for optimism. If he gets elected and things are the same old same old, I’m afraid my faith in politics is going to go away forever.
On a lighter note, I love Michelle Obama. Finally a potential first lady who doesn’t look like she’s in a constant Valium daze to make it through the day!
Thanks for your response and not reacting to my feistiness. I’m a political junkie. Just got my 4 Obama bumper stickies—a redundant thing to do living in Boulder, CO. Not too many people to convince.
-
-
-
ColumnistOffline
-
-
-
I was drawn to this article by the title, being the contributor of the "Let's Talk Politics" column here at Fabulous 40. Although, I attempt to remain at least somewhat neutral in my column, I feel the need to speak out here. In my opinion, as soon as I read Fox Newsas the source of figures, the credibility meter went into the red for me. Fox news is so blatantly pro-Bush/McCain, no figures from there could be trusted as impartial. Some of their commentators have committed offenses worthy of dismissal from the airwaves. I put them in the Howard Stern category. I fail to see how the media has embraced Obama any oftener than they have desparaged him. He’s been damned if he did and damned if he didn’t since day one. Obama doesn’t have a problem. Old mindsets have a problem.
I’m an over 60 white, educated female and I support Senator Obama. I’ve given most of the reasons in a subtle way in my column. I do resent being lumped into that ‘gray haired’ set that can’t let go of last centuries and past loyalties in times that aren’t even comparable.
I’m weary with the raping of our Constitution and the corruption and plundering in a do-nothing Congress on both sides of the aisle. I’m weary of people not taking a certain amount of responsibility for their own lives and not looking to government to provide everything. I’m weary of tax breaks for the wealthiest CEO’s while the working family struggles to put food on the table. I’m weary with billions being spent on a war that was taken to the wrong theater in the beginning because it behooved a few. I’m weary with our flag being laughed at and scorned all around the world. I’m weary of lies and promises that are never even addressed once the oath of office is taken. I’m weary with ‘things as usual’ in Washington.
But most of all, I’m weary with the rape of the Planet to feed insatiable greed rather than moving to the future.Can Obama fix all these things? No. But he is brilliantly educated, he can think critically, and he commands respect. I think he wants to at least move in a new direction. Is he a risk? Life is a risk and he can’t possibly be any worse than the band of criminals reigning the last eight years. Maybe I am guilty of audacity, but he gives me hope that we can be the America once respected and honorable again.
My kudos to those responding here that do seek to research the hype beyond cable news. These are the voices of women today. Women who shun labels worn in decades past.
Susan Haley
-
-
-
ColumnistOffline
-
-
-
The only reason I wasn’t thrilled about Hillary Clinton’s bid is that we’ve had 20 years of either a Clinton or a Bush in the Whitehouse and look at the state of things. The issues of the 90’s aren’t applicable now and I was put off by the lies, both blatant and subtle, in the Clinton campaign, although I do hold Mark Penn responsible for some of that.
For Barack to choose Hillary as VP would totally go against all he’s said about “change” from politics as usual. We all know the media would serve him for lunch on that too! I do respect Hillary’s experience and political savvy and I think there are many places for her to serve, Senate majority leader, comes to mind. I don’t think, however, she’d even fit well as second in command again and there is simply too much baggage connected with Bill and his foreign dealings now.
I do respectfully disagree that we can sit and ‘wait out our problems for now‘. It’s decades of sitting and ‘waiting out’ our problems that have gotten us in the mess we are in. It’s as if this country has to have a crisis before there’s anything done. They’ve known since the 70’s that energy would become a problem. They’ve known since ‘Whitewater’ that there was corruption in the mortgage and banking industry, they knew in the 90’s with the first terrorist attack on the World Trade that we had an issue with radical extremists, and we had a rash of sky-jacking incidents in the 80’s. Why wasn’t security enhanced then? We’ve known for decades that roads, bridges and seawalls and all manner of infrastructure throughout the nation is decaying. How many more broken levees and collapsing bridges should we sit out and wait? That’s what a gas tax vacation will do. Deplete a highway program already in a three billion dollar shortfall. I don’t see ExxonMobil taking the bite. In fact, McCain wants to give them an even more lucrative tax break under the guise of ‘energy research‘. With an $11 Billion dollar quarterly profit, one would think they could pop for their own research as any advances in alternative energy will behoove the providers.
If we hadn’t ‘waited’ out these problems, they may have been tucked away in their little niche of history by now rather than the cause of senseless loss of life and an impending economic doom.
Susan Haley
-
-
-
SilverOffline
-
-
-
Susan,
Thank you for expressing so much more articulately how I feel about the current administration, Obama and the future of our country.
I’m tired of people saying “It’s just politics as usual” and I’m tired of people flippantly dismissing the hope, excitement and SUBSTANCE that surrounds the candidacy of Obama.
His message is different; his website is very clear about his positions and plans, and his words of hope and UNITY are badly needed.
If one doesn’t realize how much this current administration has alienated the U.S. from the rest of the world, take a trip traveling overseas and talk to the people.
My husband and I were in France 2 weeks before the last election. Contrary to what we heard, we were treated most excellently. The French people we came across had the intelligence and compassion to know that most Americans (as all polls clearly show) did not represent George Bush and his cronies. They were also, sadly, quite confident that Bush was about to see his final days in office.
Reducing the fact that 200,000 Germans showed up for a “pep rally” is quite frankly, dismissive of the intelligence of the hundreds of thousands of people all over this country and the world as to the excitement and hope we feel Obama represents.
We really do have IQ’s that extend beyond the double digits.
-
Community Topics
-
-
-
-
-
Lets Talk Politics
What's the difference between Sarah Palin and a pitbull? Posted by victori, last updated 8 hours ago
6 replies
- Browse more groups
-